It’s rivalry weekend in Knoxville, Tennessee. The #8 Tennessee Vols will host the Florida Gators for their 54th meeting. The Gators lead the series 32-21, with the last 10 matchups going 8-2 in their favor too. The last time the Vols beat the Gators was in 2022, with a score of 38-33.
This Saturday, the Volunteers look to improve their record as they kick off at 7:00 pm ET. The team has also announced they will “checker” Neyland Stadium to add to the atmosphere Vol Nation brings to home games. Although Tennessee comes into this game a big favorite, there is a reason this is a rivalry game. Regardless of each team’s performance before this game, it is always a battle for the Vols in prior seasons.
What Does This Game Mean for Each Team
For the Gators, this would be a massive win for their season. They are currently 3-2 on the season with wins over unranked Samford, Mississippi State, and UCF, and two distinct losses to presently ranked #6 Miami and #15 Texas A&M. The Gators also have a demanding remaining schedule playing against four more ranked opponents who are all in the SEC: #5 Georgia, #1 Texas, #13 LSU, and #9 Ole Miss. The current state of the program and its upcoming schedule make it extremely difficult to finish the season with more wins than losses. There has been a lot of concern about the ability of head coach Billy Napier to lead this team. In his third season with the Gators, Napier has a record of 14-16 and is on the hot seat for returning next year.
For the Volunteers, the fans are expecting a Big Orange beatdown after coming off a tough loss last week against unranked Arkansas. Tennessee came into this season with high hopes and a serious playoff contender. They still hold a strong footing in the new 12-team playoff potential, but they also have a demanding upcoming schedule: #7 Alabama, #5 Georgia, and another rivalry game against Kentucky. If the Vols can come in and dominate against Florida, this would give the team strong confidence leading into next week’s game against Alabama. It will also show the resiliency of this team as they bounce back from a loss.
Notable Injuries
The Gators listed 14 total players on their Wednesday release injury report, 9 out completely. Two of the most notable players are both starters and listed as questionable:
LT Austin Barber
Safety DJ Douglas
Barber did not practice on Wednesday, according to Napier, who has also made statements in the past that if a player does not practice on Wednesday, it is not a good sign going into Saturday. The backup LT, Devon Manuel, is also listed as out. If Barber cannot play or only play a handful of snaps, the third-string LT will be coming in, meaning the Gators may face a very overmatched battle on the line.
Another notable member of Florida’s injury report is Safety DJ Douglas. Douglass is filling in for the season starter, Asa Turner, is listed as questionable. Tennessee is not an air raid offense but are known for explosive plays downfield when the timing is right. The Vols have an advantage to exploit if Douglas cannot stay in the game.
The Vols have 7 players listed on their Wednesday release injury report, four of those being starters:
WR Squirrel White – Probable (upper body)
WR Bru McCoy – Probable (hand)
DB Christian Harrison – Probable
WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. – Doubtful (lower body)
The three WRs have been a crucial part of the Tennessee offense in the passing game. All three were subject to injury in their latest matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks last weekend. In his weekly press conference, Head Coach Josh Heupel stated that the injuries were not “long-term” or “season-ending.” However, having three offensive weapons on the injury report is not a great feeling. Even if all three receivers can play, what will be their limitations during the game? If they cannot play throughout the game, Tennessee will have to rely on Chris Brazzell, the Vol’s third most-productive receiver with 13 receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown. Backup receivers Chas Nimrod and Kaleb Webb, who both have five receptions, will also need to step up and make productive plays while the starters recover.
For the defense, going without DB Christian Harrison could cause problems for the Tennessee secondary, as Florida can throw the ball a lot better than running it.
Game Plan
This week we should see how much Coach Heupel puts foot to ass in practice after a loss. In his press conference earlier in the week, he mentioned fundamentals multiple times. As he should, considering Arkansas outplayed the Vols. I want to see a team that comes out strong and can execute consistently on both sides of the ball.
The Gators offense comes into this game ranked 8th in passing (268.6 yards per game) and 12th in rushing (142.6 yards per game). Although the Gators run the ball (53%) slightly more than pass (47%), they have found more success throwing this season. They have a two-QB rotation system with DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz. Usually, the quarterbacks swap out every other drive, but there have been times when Napier will stick with one of them for multiple drives in a row. Neither QB is considered mobile or a threat on the ground, but they have some tendencies the Vols secondary should exploit.
I could see Graham Mertz playing most of this game. He currently looks like the better quarterback for Florida, and he generally has more snaps when they are in a close game. Where the defense can capitalize is in his targets. When Mertz is in, his favorite targets are WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike. He will check down to RB Montrell Johnson Jr if they are not open. Although Mertz is not a running QB, he has shown the ability to scramble in the backfield to avoid sacks. Lagway, on the other hand, doesn’t excessively target the Gator’s leading receivers but spreads the ball around equally, including the tight ends. Lagway also has 24 fewer pass attempts than Mertz.
Tennessee’s defense can capitalize on these tendencies by paying attention to who is in at QB. This is not a reason to not worry about certain receivers but to keep in mind as they defend the pass. With Florida’s run game not being stellar, the front seven should have a good game attacking the line if they consistently compete.
Offensively, the Vols will likely rely on the run game, considering the team’s injuries. Even if McCoy, White, and Thornton can play, Coach Heupel may look to take the pressure off them and prevent further injury. In either case, the offensive line will need to do a much better job on the line. We saw the return of LT Lance Heard and RT John Campbell Jr. against Arkansas however their play was mediocre. After this week’s practice and their time since returning from injury, we will see a much better showing on the line.
Score prediction: Tennessee 35 – Florida 17
